Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wiemer hit sacrifice fly to center, Anderson scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Yelich homered to left (375 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Perez homered to left (382 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Yelich homered to center (427 feet), Turang scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pratto doubled to left, Melendez scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Melendez hit sacrifice fly to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -121
- KC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −6 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +38 Elo | MIL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 11–810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.