Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin BruihlPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caratini homered to right center (398 feet).6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Tellez homered to center (413 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Vargas homered to center (414 feet), Muncy scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Smith homered to left (373 feet).4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Rojas singled to right, Outman scored, Rojas to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Betts homered to left center (392 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- LAD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −4 | LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 10–67th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.