Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Joey WiemerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taylor homered to center (409 feet), Outman scored.3–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Adames homered to right center (376 feet), Yelich scored and Winker scored.1–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Yelich singled to left, Turang scored and Wiemer scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Wiemer doubled to shortstop, Anderson scored, Turang to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Muncy grounded out to first, Freeman scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Wiemer homered to left (403 feet), Turang scored and Taylor scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- LAD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +5 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +21 Elo | MIL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 9–68th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.