Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max CastilloPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Owen MillerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Anderson singled to right, Contreras scored, Yelich to second.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Yelich singled to center, Miller scored, Adames thrown out at second, Contreras to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 7Fermin homered to left (423 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Taylor singled to center, Anderson scored, Taylor to second.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Miller homered to left (404 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Yelich reached on infield single to shortstop, Adames scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Fair odds
- MIL -120
- KC +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −12 | KC: Josh Taylor (no track record yet) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +32 Elo | MIL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 26th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 10–811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.