Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored.8–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 6Peralta singled to right, Outman scored, Rojas to second.7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Vargas homered to left (404 feet), Taylor scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Freeman singled to right, Rojas scored and Thompson scored, Barnes to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Contreras homered to left (375 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Smith homered to left center (384 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Freeman homered to center (399 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 49%
- Fair odds
- MIL -107
- LAD +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +7 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +7 Elo | LAD 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.