San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Freeman homered to right (370 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Betts homered to left center (426 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Kim doubled to left, Bogaerts scored and Odor scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Freeman doubled to right, Betts scored and Thompson scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Fair odds
- LAD -117
- SD +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +10 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +51 Elo | LAD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 12–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–2 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.