San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-2
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas doubled to left, Muncy scored and Freeman scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 10–2
- 3Betts homered to center (413 feet), Rojas scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −23 | SD: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +4 Elo | LAD 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 14–63rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–4 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.