San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Smith singled to right, Freeman scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 12–3
- 2Kim homered to left (423 feet).2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Martinez homered to left center (407 feet), Freeman scored and Muncy scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Soto homered to right (410 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +7 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +62 Elo | LAD 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–3 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.