Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4
- Brad KellerPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kim singled to center, Bogaerts scored, Carpenter to second.0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Machado hit by pitch, Nola scored, Cronenworth to second, Tatis Jr. to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to right, Grisham scored, Nola to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Tatis Jr. scored on Keller wild pitch, Soto to second on wild pitch by Keller.0–1
- 1Tatis Jr. scored on Keller wild pitch, Soto to second on wild pitch by Keller.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Fair odds
- SD -121
- KC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | KC: Brad Keller: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +53 Elo | SD 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 8–1125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.