Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. homered to left (407 feet).6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–9
- 9Dozier homered to left center (404 feet).5–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 7Brosseau homered to left (377 feet).4–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 3Turang homered to center (408 feet), Tellez scored and Miller scored.4–8
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 3Miller doubled to right, Winker scored, Tellez to third.4–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3Wiemer scored on error by shortstop Garcia and Yelich scored on throwing error by center fielder Eaton.4–4
- 3Wiemer scored on error by shortstop Garcia and Yelich scored on throwing error by center fielder Eaton.4–4
- 3Wiemer scored on error by shortstop Garcia and Yelich scored on throwing error by center fielder Eaton.4–4
- 3Wiemer scored on error by shortstop Garcia and Yelich scored on throwing error by center fielder Eaton.4–4
- 3Yelich singled to right, Taylor scored, Wiemer to third.4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Dozier hit sacrifice fly to center, Perez scored, Pratto to second, Melendez to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Witt Jr. doubled to left, Dozier scored and Massey scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | 0 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +61 Elo | MIL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 12–89th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.