Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Drew CarltonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kim hit sacrifice fly to center, Carpenter scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6Carpenter doubled to left, Bogaerts scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Cronenworth tripled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Sullivan scored on error, Tatis Jr. safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Duffy.5–1
- 5Sullivan scored on error, Tatis Jr. safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Duffy.5–1
- 5Sullivan scored on error, Tatis Jr. safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Duffy.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 2Perez doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored and Eaton scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Witt Jr. singled to left, Duffy scored, Eaton to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Eaton grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Melendez scored, Fermin out at second, Duffy to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Duffy singled to left, Olivares scored, Melendez to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Fair odds
- SD -123
- KC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +8 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +67 Elo | SD 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 9–1122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–1 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.