Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Robert Jr. homered to left center (418 feet).3–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 8Bell reached on infield single to first, Kwan scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 8Kwan doubled to right, Straw scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6Vaughn doubled to left, Moncada scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Kwan hit sacrifice fly to left, Straw scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Burger homered to right (357 feet), Grandal scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Sheets homered to right center (413 feet), Moncada scored and Vaughn scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Moncada singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 45%
- Fair odds
- CHW -102
- CLE +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.7 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −20 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 7–1226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.