Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-4
- Dylan CeasePitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gallagher singled to left, Arias scored, Rocchio to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Brennan scored on error, Rocchio safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Anderson, Arias safe at third on error.2–1
- 7Brennan scored on error, Rocchio safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Anderson, Arias safe at third on error.2–1
- 7Brennan scored on error, Rocchio safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Anderson, Arias safe at third on error.2–1
- 7Brennan scored on error, Rocchio safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Anderson, Arias safe at third on error.2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Arias homered to right center (406 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Zavala reached on infield single to second, Benintendi scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Fair odds
- CHW -108
- CLE +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −1 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +19 Elo | CHW 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 9–1224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–2 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.