Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh BellBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Peyton BattenfieldPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bell walked, Fry scored, Kwan to second, Straw to third.2–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 42–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6Benintendi grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Alberto scored, Anderson out at second.1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Anderson singled to right, Haseley scored, Alberto to third.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Moncada singled to left, Benintendi scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Burger homered to left (408 feet), Grandal scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Vaughn homered to left center (418 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Sheets homered to center (420 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Bell doubled to right, Kwan scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Fair odds
- CHW -106
- CLE +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.7 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | CLE: Peyton Battenfield: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +4 Elo | CHW 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 8–1226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.