Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-3
- Zack GreinkePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 2González hit sacrifice fly to center, Vaughn scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Sheets singled to right, Moncada scored, Vaughn to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Fair odds
- CHW -113
- KC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.9 – 5.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +20 Elo | CHW 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–14 | Road vs home | 9–1325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 3–1 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.