Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Burger doubled to center, Benintendi scored, Moncada scored and Robert Jr. scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Moncada singled to left, Benintendi scored and Robert Jr. scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Perez homered to left center (372 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 58%
- Fair odds
- CHW -117
- KC +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 4.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +14 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +55 Elo | CHW 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 10–1324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 3–2 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.