Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Candelario doubled to left, Thomas scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Ruiz singled to right, Dickerson scored, Ruiz thrown out at second.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Thomas singled to left, Vargas scored and Abrams scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Candelario homered to right center (390 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Torkelson homered to left center (401 feet), Vierling scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Fair odds
- WSH -110
- DET +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −3 | DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +39 Elo | WSH 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 8–1528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.