Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Mike MayersPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Olivares singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Báez singled to center, McKinstry scored, Greene to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Perez hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored, Bradley Jr. to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Garcia singled to left, Massey scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Massey doubled to right, Olivares scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Fair odds
- KC -101
- DET +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +3 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Mike Mayers (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DET +19 Elo | DET 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 6–1829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.