Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Báez doubled to left, Greene scored, Haase scored and Short scored, Báez thrown out at third.8–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 5Bradley Jr. homered to left (387 feet), Lopez scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 3Vierling homered to left center (401 feet), Baddoo scored.5–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 1Perez homered to center (419 feet).3–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (424 feet), Pratto scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Vierling singled to left, Báez scored and Torkelson scored, Baddoo to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Baddoo walked, McKinstry scored, Torkelson to second, Báez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 46%
- Fair odds
- KC -101
- DET +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −4 | DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 6–1729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.