Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason EnglertPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Baddoo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ibañez scored, Maton out at third.4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6McKinstry singled to center, Baddoo scored, Vierling to third.3–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Maton homered to right (398 feet).2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Vargas homered to left center (395 feet), Smith scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Torkelson singled to center, McKinstry scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Adams homered to left center (381 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Smith grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Meneses scored, Call out at second.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Garrett singled to left, Candelario scored, Meneses to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Meneses singled to center, Thomas scored, Candelario to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- DET +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +10 | DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +36 Elo | WSH 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 9–1527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.