Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Yasmani GrandalBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7González doubled to left, Benintendi scored and Haseley scored, Frazier to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Vaughn scored on error, Grandal safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Ramírez, Benintendi safe at third on error.2–2
- 7Vaughn scored on error, Grandal safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Ramírez, Benintendi safe at third on error.2–2
- 7Vaughn scored on error, Grandal safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Ramírez, Benintendi safe at third on error.2–2
- 7Vaughn scored on error, Grandal safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Ramírez, Benintendi safe at third on error.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Naylor doubled to right, Rosario scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Grandal homered to left center (414 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Brennan homered to right center (390 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Fair odds
- CLE -113
- CHW +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–17 | Road vs home | 10–1225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 2–2 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.