Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8McNeil hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored, Lindor to second.1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Lindor homered to center (404 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Ramírez homered to right (418 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +22 Elo | NYM 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 11–915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–2 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.