Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 10Alonso homered to left center (416 feet), Nimmo scored and McNeil scored.7–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 10J. Lowe singled to right, Ramírez scored, J. Lowe out stretching at second.7–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 10Ramírez singled to center, Walls scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9Álvarez homered to left center (426 feet), Vogelbach scored and Marte scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9Arozarena reached on infield single to shortstop, J. Lowe scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8B. Lowe homered to right (366 feet), Arozarena scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Vientos homered to center (414 feet), Canha scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Siri homered to right center (389 feet).2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Paredes hit a ground rule double, B. Lowe scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- NYM +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +11 | TB: Josh Fleming: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +12 Elo | TB 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.9 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 7–923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.