Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Escobar homered to left (376 feet), Alonso scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 8Ramírez singled to center, Siri scored, Ramírez to second.8–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Alonso homered to left (412 feet), McNeil scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Siri homered to left center (416 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Baty homered to right center (419 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 5Paredes homered to left (356 feet), Arozarena scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Ramírez singled to right, Bethancourt scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Paredes homered to left (365 feet), Ramírez scored and Franco scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -101
- NYM +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | TB: Jalen Beeks: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.2 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.9 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 7–820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.