Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pham reached on infield single to third, McNeil scored, Baty to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6J. Lowe homered to center (440 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Alonso homered to center (446 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Baty grounded out to first, Lindor scored, Alonso to second, McNeil to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 11–0
- 1Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to second, J. Lowe scored, Arozarena out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -101
- NYM +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +9 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.3 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.8 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–624th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.