Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lindor singled to right, Álvarez scored, Nimmo to second.9–10
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–10
- 10Álvarez singled to left, Escobar scored, Álvarez to second.9–9
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–9
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–8
- 10Vientos singled to center, Baty scored.9–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–8
- 10Arias homered to right (383 feet), Ramírez scored.9–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 7Alonso homered to right center (400 feet), Nimmo scored, Lindor scored and McNeil scored.7–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Naylor singled to left, Gallagher scored and Kwan scored, Ramírez to second.7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Baty homered to left (368 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5McNeil singled to right, Lindor scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Álvarez homered to left center (413 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Fair odds
- NYM -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −11 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +5 Elo | NYM 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 9–918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.