Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte homered to right center (388 feet), Baty scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Ramírez homered to center (411 feet), Rosario scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Rosario reached on infield single to first, Kwan scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Straw grounded out to second, Freeman scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Nimmo homered to right center (442 feet).0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to center, Alonso scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Escobar singled to right, Vogelbach scored, Sánchez thrown out at home.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +31 Elo | NYM 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 10–916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.