Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-4
- Jesse ScholtensPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Mike ZuninoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GaddisPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Zunino homered to right (341 feet), Arias scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Arias scored on Scholtens wild pitch.0–1
- 2Arias scored on Scholtens wild pitch.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -111
- CHW +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −10 | CHW: Jimmy Lambert (no track record yet) · CLE: Hunter Gaddis: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +7 Elo | CLE 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–16 | Road vs home | 9–1225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.