Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting2-3
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Zavala hit sacrifice fly to left, González scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Frazier scored, González to third on wild pitch by Quantrill.5–0
- 4Frazier scored on Quantrill wild pitch, González to third on wild pitch by Quantrill.5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4González doubled to right, Vaughn scored and Sheets scored, Frazier to third.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Burger hit sacrifice fly to right, Moncada scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Anderson singled to center, Frazier scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -111
- CHW +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +9 Elo | CLE 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 10–1325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 3–2 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.