Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Akil BaddooBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Anderson singled to left, Burger scored, Alberto to second.12–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 212–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–3
- 8Moncada singled to left, Alberto scored and Anderson scored, Robert Jr. to second.11–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 8Alberto singled to left, Burger scored.9–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 6Vierling grounded into double play, third to first, Maton scored, Cabrera to second, Baddoo out at third.8–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 6Cabrera walked, Torkelson scored, Baddoo to second, Maton to third.8–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 48–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking8–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 38–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Vaughn homered to left center (368 feet), Moncada scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 5Moncada tripled to center, Robert Jr. scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Alberto grounded out to shortstop, Frazier scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Benintendi tripled to right, Anderson scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Fair odds
- DET -115
- CHW +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −7 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +29 Elo | DET 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 11–1019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.