Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Akil BaddooBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Short singled to center, Greene scored and Torkelson scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Greene singled to center, McKinstry scored, Greene to second.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Sheets homered to right (353 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Torkelson singled to center, McKinstry scored, Báez to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Báez singled to center, Cabrera scored and Haase scored, McKinstry to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 11–1
- 4Baddoo homered to right (404 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Anderson singled to right, Burger scored, Anderson to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- CHW +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −21 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +18 Elo | CHW 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 10–1020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.