Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hays singled to center, Mullins scored, Rutschman to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Seager doubled to center, Thompson scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Semien doubled to left, Grossman scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Rutschman scored, Hays to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Hays singled to right, Mullins scored, Rutschman to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -112
- TEX +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −30 | +4 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 1.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +36 Elo | BAL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 15–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–2 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.