Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Akil BaddooBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Haase hit sacrifice fly to center, Torkelson scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Báez grounded out to shortstop, Greene scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to left, Jiménez scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Robert Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Anderson scored, Jiménez third.4–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Jiménez doubled to shortstop, Frazier scored and Sheets scored, Anderson to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Baddoo homered to right (384 feet), McKinstry scored, Greene scored and Maton scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3González homered to left (356 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Fair odds
- DET -115
- CHW +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +14 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +32 Elo | DET 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 12–1118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.