Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Seager singled to right, Taveras scored, Jankowski to second.5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Grossman scored, Taveras to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Seager homered to right center (400 feet), Grossman scored and Semien scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -101
- DET +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −6 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +56 Elo | TEX 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.3 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 13–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.