New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.2 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Higashioka singled to left, LeMahieu scored, Bauers to second, Allen to third.10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–4
- 6Judge homered to left center (378 feet).9–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 5Rodríguez singled to right, Trammell scored and Caballero scored.8–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Kiner-Falefa doubled to left, Allen scored and Calhoun scored.8–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5Calhoun doubled to right, Judge scored and Torres scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Rodríguez homered to left center (410 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Bauers homered to right (355 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Judge homered to left (378 feet), Torres scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 2Hernández grounded out to shortstop, Kelenic scored, Suárez to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Bauers doubled to right, Bader scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 16–1315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.