San Diego Padres at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Odor singled to center, Soto scored, Bogaerts to second.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Rizzo grounded out to first, Torres scored, Judge to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Tatis Jr. homered to left (439 feet), Nola scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Soto homered to right (432 feet), Cronenworth scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -118
- SD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −10 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYY: Randy Vasquez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +38 Elo | NYY 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 17–129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.