San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Rougned OdorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Alex CallBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Kim homered to center (405 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Thomas doubled to left, Call scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Odor homered to right (363 feet), Soto scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2García hit sacrifice fly to left, Call scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Call doubled to left, Ruiz scored and Smith scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Ruiz singled to right, Garrett scored, Smith to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- SD +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −7 | SD: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +9 Elo | SD 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 10–1628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.