Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Enmanuel ValdezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Tatis Jr. homered to left center (440 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Verdugo singled to left, Hernández scored, Wong to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Soto homered to right center (409 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Valdez homered to right (374 feet), Tapia scored and Hernández scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 47%
- Fair odds
- SD -103
- BOS +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −14 | BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 9–1427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.