Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to right center (415 feet).6–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 36–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Devers homered to center (435 feet), Turner scored and Refsnyder scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Refsnyder doubled to center, Wong scored and Verdugo scored, Turner to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Devers homered to right (381 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Fair odds
- SD -107
- BOS +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −4 | BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +13 Elo | SD 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 10th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 9–1326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.