Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-3
- Corey KluberPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Padres- Matt CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Odor doubled to left, Kim scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Carpenter homered to right (363 feet), Soto scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Odor doubled to right, Carpenter scored, Cronenworth scored and Bogaerts scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Carpenter walked, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to second, Cronenworth to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Fair odds
- SD -107
- BOS +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +16 | BOS: Corey Kluber: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +30 Elo | SD 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 9–1528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.