San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meneses doubled to right, García scored.7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Cronenworth homered to right center (381 feet), Bogaerts scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 7Soto homered to center (441 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Odor scored, Nola to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Thomas homered to left center (382 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Abrams homered to right (393 feet), Call scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Dixon homered to center (403 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Bogaerts homered to right (357 feet), Soto scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Fair odds
- WSH -110
- SD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +11 Elo | WSH 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 10–1527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.