San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Rougned OdorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Odor homered to right (369 feet), Cronenworth scored and Soto scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Ruiz reached on infield single to second, Smith scored, Call to third.5–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Call reached on bunt single to pitcher, Dickerson scored on throwing error by pitcher Martinez, Call to second, Smith safe at third on error.5–5
- 7Call reached on bunt single to pitcher, Dickerson scored on throwing error by pitcher Martinez, Call to second, Smith safe at third on error.5–5
- 7Call reached on bunt single to pitcher, Dickerson scored on throwing error by pitcher Martinez, Call to second, Smith safe at third on error.5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Smith singled to right, Candelario scored, Dickerson to second.5–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 7Dickerson singled to left, Meneses scored, Candelario to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Candelario doubled to right, García scored, Meneses to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Odor doubled to left, Bogaerts scored and Soto scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Bogaerts singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Soto to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −12 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +7 Elo | WSH 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 11–1627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.