San Diego Padres at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Rougned OdorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sullivan hit sacrifice fly to left, Kim scored.7–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–10
- 8Higashioka singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.6–10
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 8Bader homered to left center (393 feet).6–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 7Azocar grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kim scored, Grisham out at third.6–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 7Odor homered to right (389 feet), Carpenter scored.5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 3Higashioka doubled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.3–8
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 3Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Calhoun scored.3–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 3Calhoun doubled to center, Bader scored.3–6
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 3Bader grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Judge scored, Rizzo out at second.3–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -118
- SD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +11 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +42 Elo | NYY 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 18–138th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.