San Diego Padres at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Allen scored, Bader to third.2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7LeMahieu homered to right center (374 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Kim singled to left, Azocar scored, Kim to second, Grisham to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Tatis Jr. homered to left center (426 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1LeMahieu doubled to left, Judge scored, LeMahieu to third, Rizzo thrown out at home.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +2 | SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +12 Elo | NYY 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 17–1313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–0 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.