Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Jake MarisnickBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lowe singled to center, Grossman scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Marisnick singled to right, Nevin scored, Short to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Rogers hit sacrifice fly to center, Maton scored, Nevin to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Heim singled to center, Jung scored, Heim to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Báez grounded into fielder's choice to third, McKinstry scored, Baddoo out at second.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -103
- DET +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −18 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +55 Elo | TEX 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.4 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3019–11 | Road vs home | 13–1320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.