New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting4-5, 4 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Cabrera scored and Calhoun scored.10–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 18–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 7Judge homered to left center (390 feet).8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Hernández doubled to right, France scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5France doubled to left, Haggerty scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4Allen homered to right (344 feet).7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Volpe homered to left center (413 feet), Calhoun scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Bauers hit sacrifice fly to left, LeMahieu scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Judge scored and Torres scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, LeMahieu to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +4 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +29 Elo | SEA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 16–1417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.