St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Andrew KniznerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Jihwan BaeBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Knizner homered to left (419 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Bae singled to center, Reynolds scored and Suwinski scored, Hayes to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −11 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL 0 Elo | STL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 14–1318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–4 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.