Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-4
- Miles MikolasPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Pasquantino scored, Olivares out at second.1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Gorman hit sacrifice fly to right, Edman scored, Donovan to second.0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 6Arenado doubled to left, Goldschmidt scored.0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Fair odds
- STL -120
- KC +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.9 – 5.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +15 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +57 Elo | STL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 11–1626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.