Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting6-6, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Massey scored, Lopez out at second, Pasquantino to third.12–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking12–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 112–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–9
- 8Perez singled to right, Waters scored, Pasquantino to second, Massey to third.12–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–9
- 8Garrett singled to center, Candelario scored.12–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–8
- 8Candelario tripled to left, García scored and Meneses scored.11–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–8
- 7Witt Jr. homered to left center (403 feet), Duffy scored and Perez scored.9–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 29–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 7Perez doubled to left, Garcia scored and Waters scored, Duffy to third.9–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Witt Jr. homered to left (416 feet).9–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 6Meneses singled to right, Thomas scored and García scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 6García doubled to left, Call scored and Abrams scored, Thomas to third.7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Dickerson homered to right (391 feet), Meneses scored and Candelario scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Fair odds
- KC -102
- WSH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −12 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +22 Elo | WSH 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 7–1929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.