St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Donovan scored on passed ball.2–1
- 10Donovan scored.2–1
- 3Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Donovan homered to right (361 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 11–1425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.